How many people would have died in car crashes if death rates had not dropped?

In the USA in 2016 - the latest year with data available - 37,461 people died in car crashes. That's 1.18 per 100 million miles driven.

Turning back the clock ten years to 2006, the death rate was 1.42. Had that rate held, 45,080 would have died in 2016, a 20% increase. It's clear that even the advances of the last ten years have made a huge difference. Today, a slight majority of vehicles on the road have electronic stability control (ESC), but in '06, less than 10% did. Over 20% of vehicles on the road didn't have airbags then, now that percentage has whittled down to 5%. Side curtain airbags were only on about 15% of vehicles on the road in 2006. Today, it's over two-thirds.

1996 had a death rate of 1.69, 43% higher than that of 2016. Had that rate held, 53,652 would have died in 2016, which would have made it the third-deadliest year ever. In 1996, a majority of cars on the road didn't have airbags. ESC and side airbags were so rare as to make virtually no difference. Only a lucky few drove vehicles that could protect you from serious injury in the IIHS moderate overlap crash test. Child seats were only mandatory to age 4, not 8.

1986's death rate was 2.51; that's over twice as high (113%) as today! A staggering 79,684 people would have died in 2016 if the death rate had stayed that high. In '86, a large percentage of cars on the road couldn't protect you from serious injury in a 35 mph frontal crash with a seat belt on, that is if you were wearing one - just over a third of people buckled up then.

1976 had a death rate of 3.25, nearing three times the 2016 rate. Had it held, 103,176 lives would have been lost in 2016. This is the era of the 55 mph speed limit, but no matter. Safety features at this time were rudimentary. Most cars on the road had 3 point seat belts, but very few - about 10% - wore them. There was no crash testing to make sure that the safety features worked.

Going back a half century, 1966's death rate was 5.50! That's 4 2/3 times the 2016 rate, and had it remained that high, 174,606 would have lost their lives in 2016. The first efforts to make cars safer in crashes were ongoing at this time, although the first federal safety standards would wait until the next year. The effects of these rudimentary safety features were dramatic - death rates would plummet by 41% in the ensuing decade.

In the decades before the 1960s, crashworthiness improved little, but efforts were made to improve driver safety, such as the requirement for licensure, better road design, educational efforts, and a less "Wild West" and more organized traffic system. Vehicles also became more reliable and more dynamically competent, able to avoid accidents more easily.

1956's death rate was 6.05; had that held, 192,067 would have died in 2016.

1946's death rate was 9.35; had that held, 296,831 would have died in 2016.

1936's death rate was 14.33; had that held, 454,929 would have died in 2016.

1926's death rate was 15.77; had that held, 500,644 would have died in 2016.

But the worst year of all is 1921, the first year in which sufficient data is available. The death rate that year was 24.09! That's over 20 times the death rate of today, and had THAT death rate been maintained, 764,776 people would have died in 2016!

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