Prediction of Car Crash Deaths, 1980-2000 vs. Reality

On page 72 of this report, "Small Car Safety in the 1980s", released by NHTSA in 1980, there is a chart (as seen above) which predicts the number of crash fatalities in passenger vehicles with and without "automatic crash protection" (ACP) (airbags, automatic seat belts, etc) between 1980 and 2000.

The starting point for the chart is 1980, where approximately 28,400 deaths are predicted that year. (In reality, the number was significantly worse: 34,996).

This chart projects that crash deaths would increase to around 60,900 by 2000, if vehicles stayed as safe as they did in 1980.  With automatic crash protection, deaths were forecast to be in the 35,000 - 41,500 range by 2000. (I had to do pixel measurements and convert them, so the numbers are approximate).

Car crash deaths fell dramatically between 1980 and 1983, falling below the ACP prediction. At no point after this time did deaths come close to the "no additional safety features" prediction. This initial drop was largely due to people driving less after the oil crisis; later drops and stagnations were due to improved safety. Most of this was due to vehicle factors, but a good chunk was due to driver and road factors.

From 29,154 in 1983, they rose to 34,105 in 1988, above the ACP prediction range but still much closer to the ACP range than the "no additional safety features" range. By 1991, the fatalities were in the ACP prediction range once again, falling below even this range by the late 1990s. One thing the chart did get right was the bottoming-out of crash deaths in the early 1990s.

In reality, there were 32,109 deaths in passenger vehicles in car crashes in 2000, over 8% less than in 1980 and significantly better than even the "automatic crash protection" best-case scenario. According to this chart, 28,791 lives were saved in 2000 because of safety improvements since 1980.

What were those improvements?
The "small car" revolution then predicted did not occur. Vehicles did downsize - for a time, but by 2000 small cars were much heavier than they were in 1980. Much of this difference was due to stronger, more crashworthy structure, which applies to vehicles of all sizes.

Crashworthiness improvements - in 1980, most cars on the road couldn't protect their drivers from serious injury in a 35 mph full frontal crash. By 2000, most could, and an increasing number could protect their drivers in severe offset frontal and side impact crashes as well.

Seat belt use - in 1980, only about 10% of people buckled up. By 2000, over 70% did.

Safety features - dual front airbags, rear 3-point seat belts and side-impact door beams were on all new vehicles by 2000, and many vehicles on the road; these features were rare or non-existent in 1980. Anti-lock brakes were on most new vehicles by 2000, and side-impact airbags, traction control, and stability control were emerging technologies.

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